By Jean-Hervé Lorenzi, Mickaël Berrebi
During the Nineties Francis Fukuyama introduced the tip of historical past. The 2000s confirmed the way it is an phantasm to visualize a calm global with out conflict.
In this booklet the authors discover how six significant constraints are set to mend the trajectory of the worldwide economic system. 3 of them are new: the getting older inhabitants, the failure of technical growth, and the shortage of mark downs. the opposite 3 were at paintings for a while: the explosion of inequality, the mass move of actions from one finish of the realm to the opposite, and the unlimited financialization of economic climate. They recommend that like seismic job which is dependent upon strain among tectonic plates, the political and social tensions could be exacerbated within the coming years by way of those significant forces. They suggest that gurus can be incapable of stopping neither the date nor the depth of the arriving earthquakes, and ask the query: can we deal with those destiny shocks and the violence they're bound to reason?
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Additional resources for A Violent World: Modern Threats to Economic Stability
The figures are well-known. 31 By 2030, five billion people – 67% of the world’s population – will probably have no access to decent sanitation. Yet Goal 10 of the Millennium Development Goals was a reduction by half in the 24 A Violent World percentage of this population. The original difficulty thus remains the inequality of access to water – an inequality between countries, regions, cities and towns, and even neighbourhoods. Water is a major key to the distribution of the world population. In 2020, some 60 million people will have abandoned the deserts of subSaharan Africa for the Maghreb (Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria) and thence to Europe.
Slowdown: the great debate For economists, prospects are traditionally based on what is known as ‘potential growth’. This is defined as growth that makes it possible to attain the maximum level of production without accelerating inflation and without creating a major imbalance. e. in technical progress. Whether one looks at the work of the IMF, the OECD or the many other economic research organizations, while their forecasts are in all probability inaccurate, they nevertheless express the idea we have of the future, and it is much less optimistic than could be imagined.
The Curse of Ageing 35 The phenomenon of ageing can actually upset the hand that has been dealt. It would therefore be the number of people, but their age, which is significant. The ‘demographic transition’ represents the transition from traditional demographics in which the birth and death rates are very high to a so-called modern demographic, in which these rates are low, yet barely differentiated. The ageing of the population, born of this movement, follows several stages in time. 5 The birth rate will also progressively decrease in the future, due to various factors such as contraception, education, working women and birth control policies, in order to reach a level close to that of the death rate.
A Violent World: Modern Threats to Economic Stability by Jean-Hervé Lorenzi, Mickaël Berrebi