By Marvin Cetron, Owen Davies
This learn may be considered as a reaction to a decision sounded by way of Dr. Thomas Mahnken on the Forces Transformation Chairs assembly in February 2007. Dr. Mahnken, Deputy Assistant Secretary of safeguard for coverage making plans, mentioned that the USA responds to shocks such a lot effectively while it has already famous and spoke back to the traits from which they emerge. it's much less winning while these tendencies have long gone unidentified or while no powerful reaction to them has been fastened. One case the place the developments weren't well-known in time used to be the terrorist assaults of September eleven, 2001. It therefore turns into invaluable, Dr. Mahnken concluded, to improve a method of selecting developments and responding to them sooner than acute demanding situations emerge.
Forecasting overseas (FI) heartily agreed. FI is without doubt one of the world’s greatest futurist firms. It makes a speciality of the research of tendencies. To our wisdom, we have been the 1st such association to use pattern research to the matter of terrorism. We did so with significant success.
FI started its paintings on terrorism in 1994, while it controlled the 4th Annual safeguard around the world struggling with Terrorism convention for the Pentagon. Its convention file, Terror 2000: the long run Face of Terror, appropriately anticipated the increase of Muslim extremism as a resource of terror, the terrorists’ growing to be flavor for mass bloodletting, using coordinated assaults on far-off goals, or even an attack at the Pentagon utilizing a hijacked plane (omitted on the request of the nation Department). seeing that then, FI has frequently studied terrorist matters for either govt and personal industry.
In the present record, FI examines the way forward for foreign terrorism. during this attempt, it's been assisted by means of greater than fifty of the world’s prime gurus within the fields of antiterrorism, intelligence, protection, and policing. This professional panel incorporated participants of the intelligence group, experts from the U.S. executive and army, safety experts, imagine tank staffers, forecasters, collage professors, and native police officers. such a lot got here from the USA, yet Australia, Canada, eire, New Zealand, Russia, and Switzerland additionally have been represented. numerous individuals selected to stay nameless, as a result of their delicate positions in executive and the army. One contributor is a personal citizen of whom we all know not anything, shop that he spoke back to article we had released and supplied a few attention-grabbing thoughts.
This typifies our technique during this paintings. we've attempted to be inclusive, instead of unique. FI’s personal perspectives, and people of definite specialists, dominate the record, yet a few were included—often within the appendices—specifically simply because they diverge from the mainstream and may supply priceless insights or novel rules that will now not come up from extra traditional assets. we've attempted to forget not anything that are supposed to not less than be thought of. some of the rules awarded right here need to be noticeable on the maximum degrees of government.
Key findings from our panel of specialists include:
International terrorism will develop as veterans of the Iraq struggle go back to their local lands, educate • sympathizers within the strategies of terror, and unfolded around the world.
Among the Western lands, Britain and France (owing to their huge Muslim populations) and the • usa may be on the maximum hazard of assault, in that order. extra assaults at the scale of 11th of September are to be anticipated in all 3 nations over the diversity of 5 to 10 years.
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Extra info for 55 Trends Now Shaping the Future of Terrorism
Reserves there may be even larger than those in Saudi Arabia, according to some estimates. However, it is more expensive to refine and use, because it contains much higher levels of sulfur than the Middle Eastern oil currently in production. ––India also is believed to own substantial reserves of oil in deposits beneath the Indian Ocean. • OPEC officials claim that the eleven member countries can provide for the world’s energy needs for roughly the next 80 years. ––OPEC supplies about 40 percent of the world’s oil and holds 60 percent of the known oil available internationally.
This is unlikely, but the probable impact of such a conflict is so great that the possibility cannot be ignored. The spread of fundamentalist Muslim regimes with a grudge against the West also could keep OPEC oil out of the American market. If the United States loses access to Middle Eastern oil, it will buy even more from Canada and Venezuela, tap the Arctic National Wildlife Reserve, and develop the deepwater fields under the Gulf of Mexico much faster than expected. In a prolonged energy emergency, America also would be likely to develop its vast reserves of oil shale, which have long been economically viable at crude prices over $40 per barrel.
In a prolonged energy emergency, America also would be likely to develop its vast reserves of oil shale, which have long been economically viable at crude prices over $40 per barrel. New technology reportedly 55 Trends Now Shaping the Future 53 makes it profitable at any price over $17 per barrel. With enough shale oil to supply its own needs for 300 years, the United States could become one of the world’s largest petroleum exporters. Developing shale would devastate the environment, but with crude oil prices in triple digits during a Middle East war, the environment would be considered expendable.
55 Trends Now Shaping the Future of Terrorism by Marvin Cetron, Owen Davies